EOFY spending forecast points to cautious consumer behaviour, reports find

Uyen Duong

16th Jun 2026

EOFY sales remain one of Australia’s key retail events, but cost-of-living pressures are influencing spending despite discount campaigns across the sector.

Research from the Australian Retail Council (ARC) and Roy Morgan shows around 6.1 million Australians plan to shop during EOFY sales this year. Total spending is expected to reach $10.7 billion, up 1.9 per cent from last year but below the rate of inflation.

ARC chief industry engagement officer Fleur Brown said the findings reflect ongoing financial pressure on households. “While spending is forecast to increase modestly over last year, the growth remains well below inflation and signals Australian consumers are carefully managing every dollar,” she said.

Fashion, home appliances, whitegoods and consumer technology are expected to account for a large share of EOFY spending.

Australians aged 35 to 49 are expected to spend less than other age groups, with Brown citing mortgage repayments and child-raising costs as contributing factors. Older Australians are expected to spend more due to lower exposure to interest rate increases.

The research also found that around 3 million Australians who shopped during last year’s EOFY sales do not plan to participate this year, suggesting consumer spending remains constrained.

Separate research conducted by Primara Research for Fishbowl Inventory, based on a survey of 1002 Australians, points to similar trends. Around 66.7 per cent of respondents said they plan to shop during EOFY, with spending forecast to approach $8 billion. Millennials are expected to account for 44 per cent of total expenditure.

Cost-of-living pressures were cited by 82.7 per cent of respondents as a reason for seeking EOFY discounts. Among millennials, 28.3 per cent said they had delayed a major purchase until the sales period.

“Consumer behaviour is shifting toward planned, discount-driven purchasing, and the data puts an $8 billion price tag on getting it right,” said Simon Jupe, MD Apac at Fishbowl Inventory.

Analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics household spending data conducted by Primara found that EOFY continues to provide opportunities for businesses in transport, clothing, furnishings, and household goods.

Jupe said retailers need to align inventory and pricing decisions before and after 30 June to capture demand around sales periods. Brown said maintaining discount programs is becoming more difficult as operating costs increase, and called for government action to reduce administrative and regulatory burdens on businesses.