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Retailers predicting Black Friday bonanza as cost-of-living continues to bite

Retailers are expected to achieve $69.7 billion in sales over the six weeks leading up to Christmas, an increase of 2.7 per cent over last year, according to new research from Roy Morgan.

The study, undertaken for the Australian Retailers Association (ARA), also predicts consumers will spend $6.7 billion online – 5 per cent more than last year – during Black Friday and Cyber Monday as they take advantage of promotions to buy gifts.

ARA CEO Paul Zahra says this peak-season trading period is promising for retailers despite Australians’ effort to balance household budgets whilst savouring the festive season. 

“Whilst the year-on-year growth projections remain modest, these figures in most categories are encouraging after another challenging year”, he said. “Shoppers are being savvier than ever with their dollars.”

Holiday food spending in Australia is set to soar, with a projected $28 billion increase and 4.2 per cent more than last year’s festive season.

“They’re looking for the best value when it comes to buying presents for their loved ones, which is why sales events like Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend are consistently growing in popularity,” Zahra said.

Non-food merchandise will see a more modest climb of 1.6 per cent in last year’s figures, with an increase of 3.3 per cent in clothing, 4.7 per cent in other retailing, including recreational goods, books, cosmetics, and the same number in hospitality.

“We are also seeing a continued trend towards spending on little luxuries whilst some broader discretionary categories are forecasted to be in decline,”

With an expected spend of $3.6 billion on department stores and a total of $10.7 billion expected on household goods, which are predicted to decline.

Sales growth is expected to vary across states, with NSW exceeding 3.4 per cent ($21.9 billion) and Tasmania reaching 5.9 per cent. Queensland and Victoria will increase by 3 per cent and 2.3 per cent ($17.8 billion), respectively, while WA will have ​​a marginal 0.2 per cent rise.

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