ARA predicts Black Friday bonanza for retailers

Kaycee Enerva

7th Nov 2025

Retailers across Australia are gearing up for what’s tipped to be the biggest Black Friday-Cyber Monday weekend on record, with shoppers expected to spend $6.8 billion, according to forecasts from the Australian Retailers Association (ARA).

The projection represents a 4 per cent increase on last year’s spending and which ARA says is a welcome boost for retailers after two years of subdued consumer demand.

ARA CEO Chris Rodwell said the late-November shopping event has become a cornerstone of the retail calendar, helping businesses build momentum heading into the Christmas trading period.

“Black Friday has firmly established itself as one of the most important events of the year for Australian retailers,” he said.

“It provides essential cashflow for discretionary retailers and small businesses that have faced softer consumer spending.”

Around 6 million Australians are expected to shop the sales this year, including 3.5 million women and 2.5 million men.

Men are notably more inclined to buy for themselves (27 per cent) than for Christmas gifts (7 per cent), while women are evenly split between shopping for gifts (17 per cent) and personal purchases (16 per cent).

Average spending is forecast at $804 per person, with women planning to spend around $750 and men $882. The top drivers for participation are low prices (42 per cent), strong deals (38 per cent), and saving money on Christmas gifts (25 per cent).

Rodwell added that consumers are becoming increasingly deliberate in their approach to sales events.

“People are timing their purchases to coincide with major discount periods like Black Friday. They’re looking beyond price tags – prioritising value, quality and the trust that comes from shopping with established local retailers,” he said.

While big-ticket items remain a key draw, Afterpay data shows interest across categories such as clothing and shoes (45 per cent), toys (34 per cent), books (33 per cent), and home decor (32 per cent).

“Retail is Australia’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $430 billion, about 18 per cent of GDP,” added Rodwell.

“Every dollar spent with a local or national retailer this season supports jobs, innovation and community investment. That’s something worth celebrating.”